The strongest indicators that you're about to make a terrible decision
#1 Endless Overthinking
A choice happens automatically. A decision is where you think about it. If you’re overthinking, it means there’s an emotion you’re trying to avoid by managing the outcome.
For example:
Endlessly debating whether to quit your job might mean avoiding fear and uncertainty.
Wrestling with whether to end a relationship usually means avoiding your own or your partner’s pain.
No matter how intelligent you are, you can’t make a good decision if your unconscious motive is to avoid an emotion. This is when you get trapped in an endless cycle of looping thoughts.
#2 Chasing Certainty
Every time you chase certainty, you create paralysis. Because certainty can’t be found in the future.
If you are chasing certainty, ask:
Will I regret not taking this risk?
Will I regret not being true to myself?
Usually, the answer becomes obvious.
Now, imagine making the “wrong” decision. Feel all the feelings you think would come with that failure. Welcome them. This clarifies the decision-making process quickly.
#3 Chasing More Data
When you keep researching, polling others, or analyzing one more angle, it’s rarely about needing clarity. It’s about avoiding the fear, guilt, or uncertainty that would arise if you acted.
The most dangerous decisions aren’t the “risky” ones. They’re the ones we make to avoid feeling something: fear of failure, rejection, or guilt.
Society tells us better decisions come from more data or sharper reasoning, but research shows decisions are fundamentally emotional.
Emotions are the underlying “context-setters” upon which your rational brain reasons and acts. (Check out the somatic marker hypothesis by Antonio Damasio)
#4 Trying to Manage Outcomes
A great decision isn’t one where you get what you want. It’s one where you stay who you want to be, no matter the result.
I find it best to make the decision by asking myself if I’ll be happy in ten years, no matter the outcome. Because that is a strong indicator of whether I’m being true to myself.
Another litmus test I use: Am I deciding to be myself and follow what I want, or am I deciding to try to manage the future?
If it’s the latter, I don’t take the action.
A final hack:
If you filter your latest decision (with 100% honesty): Did you do it to avoid a bad consequence or feeling? Or did you make the decision from who you want to be no matter the result?
Big Love,
Joe